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Kansas Oil and Gas Production Forecasts
Responding to a request for mid-term forecasts of Kansas monthly oil and gas production, historical production patterns were evaluated in relation to commodity prices. Kansas oil and gas production rates were estimated for December 2003, 2005 and 2007. While supply disruptions, political actions or the crisis of the moment will affect near-term price trends, mid-term energy price forecasts are expected to remain at levels such that investment and technology should maintain Kansas oil and possibly gas production volumes near present levels through 2007. Oil and gas production in Kansas is very mature and has declined significantly from peak rates in the 1950’s and 1970’s. Over the last decade of the 20th century petroleum production rates in Kansas have exhibited the influence of price on supply. At prices less than $15 per barrel of oil (BO) and $2.00 per thousand cubic feet (mcf) petroleum production rates decline exponentially (approximately 4.9 percent for oil and 7.1 percent for gas). When the price exceeds $20 per BO and $2.50 per mcf production, the “natural” exponential depletion curve no longer provides an adequate fit. If the price signal is significant and prolonged, Kansas petroleum supply does respond (e.g., the 1.1 percent rate increase in oil production from 9/95 to 11/96 and 1/99 to 7/02). Given expected prices significantly above $20 per BO, Kansas oil production is forecasted to maintain current monthly rates of approximately 2.9 million BO with a lower limit of 2.8, 2.7 and 2.6 million BO per month in December 2003, 2005 and 2007, respectively. Due to price-forecast uncertainties and the dominating effect of the Hugoton Field, natural gas production rate forecasts are more problematic. However, using a hyperbolic depletion curve, current monthly gas production of approximately 38 billion cubic feet (BCF) is expected to decline to approximately 37.5, 36, and 32 BCF per month in December 2003, 2005 and 2007. If the decline of the giant Hugoton Field continues to slow and new gas production from coalbed methane continues to increase, the decline in natural gas production rates may be less severe over the next five years.
(Editors note, this information is a summary of a report generated
by Tim Carr of the Kansas Geological Survey. The complete report can
be accessed at http://www.kgs.ku.edu/PRS/publication/2002/ofr2002-57/ofr2002-57.pdf).